035
FXUS64 KBMX 220722
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
222 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE MID-SUMMER WEATHER REGIME
IN THE SHORT TERM. LATEST SHORT TERM COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-59. TEMPERATURES ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.
/61/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED SEVERAL
DAYS NOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. IN
FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH ALABAMA AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
ANOTHER TRICKY SET OF TAFS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA GOT A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY, AND MODELS
INDICATE THAT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN MANY SPOTS BEFORE SUNRISE. GET THE FEELING THAT EET, ASN, MGM,
AND AUO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT REDUCED CEILING AND VISIBILITY, AND
HAVE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. SIMILARLY, CHANCES OF TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE AS ONE GOES SOUTH AND EAST, WHICH PUTS THE
BEST CHANCES AT MGM AND AUO.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE
TO COMMS ISSUES.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY, CAUSING
DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES TO DROP NOTICEABLY. LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A FEW
GUSTS IN AND NEAR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 70 86 69 / 50 30 70 30
ANNISTON 86 71 85 70 / 60 40 70 30
BIRMINGHAM 88 71 86 70 / 40 20 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 91 72 90 71 / 20 10 40 20
CALERA 88 71 86 70 / 50 20 60 20
AUBURN 85 71 83 70 / 80 50 80 30
MONTGOMERY 89 71 87 71 / 80 50 70 20
TROY 87 71 84 70 / 80 60 70 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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