363
FXUS64 KBMX 221109
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
609 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE MID-SUMMER WEATHER REGIME
IN THE SHORT TERM. LATEST SHORT TERM COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-59. TEMPERATURES ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.
/61/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED SEVERAL
DAYS NOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. IN
FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH ALABAMA AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
/61/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
ASN, MGM, AND MOST LIKELY AUO ARE DONE TO IFR CONDITIONS RIGHT
NOW AND WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CHANCES OF
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE AS ONE GOES SOUTH AND EAST,
WHICH PUTS THE BEST CHANCES AT MGM AND AUO. DID ADJUST THE TIMING
BACK TO MAINLY AFTER 20 TO 21Z AT ALL SITES. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE
TO COMMS ISSUES. ADDED AUO INTO THE AMD NOT SKED DUE TO COMM
ISSUES AS WE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY, CAUSING
DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES TO DROP NOTICEABLY. LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A FEW
GUSTS IN AND NEAR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 70 86 69 / 50 30 70 30
ANNISTON 86 71 85 70 / 60 40 70 30
BIRMINGHAM 88 71 86 70 / 40 20 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 91 72 90 71 / 20 10 40 20
CALERA 88 71 86 70 / 50 20 60 20
AUBURN 85 71 83 70 / 80 50 80 30
MONTGOMERY 89 71 87 71 / 80 50 70 20
TROY 87 71 84 70 / 80 60 70 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...16
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