821
FXUS64 KBMX 221724
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
THE "COPY/PASTE" FORECAST CONTINUES, WITH HEAVY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT-TERM. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SHIFT WEST. IN GENERAL THOUGH, THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANT MORNING AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIVEN BY DECAYING CONVECTION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOW-70S.
/44/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE LONG-TERM WILL
REMAIN THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION, AS THE COOLING TREND GETS UNDERWAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FRONT IN THE LONG-TERM, WITH A SECOND
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
JUST LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL HAVE.
THANKFULLY FOR US, MORNING GUIDANCE TENDS TO FAVOR DECENT SUPPORT,
WHICH IN TURN SUPPORTS COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE JUST HOW COOL WE
GET REMAINS TO BE SEEN, YOU CAN ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN THE LOW-80S, AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER-50S AND LOW-60S COME THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY, WITH MOST TERMINALS
CARRYING PROB30S OR TEMPOS FOR TSRA. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES PAST 23/01Z, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY RETURN PAST 23/06Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES ON THIS HIGH SIDE, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BY MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, MINRH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR
40%. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ASIDE
FROM BRIEF UPTICKS DUE TO THUNDERSTORM AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 86 69 86 / 30 70 30 40
ANNISTON 71 85 70 86 / 40 70 30 40
BIRMINGHAM 71 86 70 86 / 20 60 20 30
TUSCALOOSA 72 90 71 90 / 10 40 20 20
CALERA 71 86 70 86 / 20 60 20 30
AUBURN 71 83 70 86 / 50 80 30 40
MONTGOMERY 71 87 71 88 / 50 70 20 30
TROY 71 84 70 86 / 60 70 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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