585
FXUS64 KBMX 230130
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
830 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
THE "COPY/PASTE" FORECAST CONTINUES, WITH HEAVY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT-TERM. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SHIFT WEST. IN GENERAL THOUGH, THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANT MORNING AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIVEN BY DECAYING CONVECTION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOW-70S.
/44/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE LONG-TERM WILL
REMAIN THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION, AS THE COOLING TREND GETS UNDERWAY BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FRONT IN THE LONG-TERM, WITH A SECOND
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
JUST LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL HAVE.
THANKFULLY FOR US, MORNING GUIDANCE TENDS TO FAVOR DECENT SUPPORT,
WHICH IN TURN SUPPORTS COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE JUST HOW COOL WE
GET REMAINS TO BE SEEN, YOU CAN ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN THE LOW-80S, AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER-50S AND LOW-60S COME THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 821 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
CONVECTION IS TAPERING DOWN FOR THE EVENING WITH ONLY MINIMAL
STILL ONGOING. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST. HAVE MENTIONS STARTING BETWEEN 8-10Z FOR ALL BUT
TCL. CONDITIONS WILL START OFF MVFR WITH SOME GOING DOWN TO IFR-
LIFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
BETWEEN 15-18Z, EXCEPT FOR AUO WHICH COULD LINGER LOWER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT AUO, WITH LOWER
CHANCES AS YOU GO TO THE WRN PART OF THE STATE.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL AND AUO UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
08
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES ON THIS HIGH SIDE, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BY MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, MINRH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR
40%. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ASIDE
FROM BRIEF UPTICKS DUE TO THUNDERSTORM AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 86 69 86 / 20 60 30 40
ANNISTON 70 85 70 85 / 30 60 30 50
BIRMINGHAM 72 86 70 88 / 20 40 20 40
TUSCALOOSA 72 91 72 91 / 20 20 10 30
CALERA 72 87 71 88 / 20 40 20 40
AUBURN 71 83 70 85 / 40 60 20 50
MONTGOMERY 72 88 71 89 / 30 40 10 40
TROY 70 86 70 87 / 40 50 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...08
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