475
FXUS64 KBMX 230529
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER GA AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL DIURNAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY TO OUR EAST INITIALLY.
HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD, WE'LL SEE A
EAST TO WEST MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY, LEADING TO SLIGHT
SUBSIDENCE. THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OVERCOME BY THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, LEADING TO LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (30-40%).
25/OWEN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
AL ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS AS A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REACHING OUR
AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
FOR LATE AUGUST. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE FRONT REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN
IS EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE
HAS A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A SHORTWAVE DIPS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE TRIES TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, BUT
THIS SEEMS TO DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE.
OVERALL, WITH THE 2 FRONTAL PASSAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR VERY MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WITH EASTERLY FLOW.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 12-15Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES WITH MGM POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO LIFR.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 15Z WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TCL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES. AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO
COMMS ISSUES.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY, MAINLY EAST OF I-65.
MINRHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY WITH MIN RHS DROPPING TO THE LOW 30% RANGE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 86 69 86 63 / 60 30 40 0
ANNISTON 85 70 85 64 / 60 30 50 0
BIRMINGHAM 86 70 88 66 / 40 20 40 0
TUSCALOOSA 91 72 91 68 / 20 10 30 0
CALERA 87 71 88 66 / 40 20 40 0
AUBURN 83 70 85 68 / 60 20 50 0
MONTGOMERY 88 71 89 69 / 40 10 40 0
TROY 86 70 87 68 / 50 20 40 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...25/OWEN
LONG TERM....25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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