033
FXUS64 KBMX 231749
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. FROM A LOCAL
FORECAST PERSPECTIVE, WE WON'T REALLY NOTICE ANY DIFFERENCE IN THE
WEATHER UNTIL THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAPPENS, AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING SAID, RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY, WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHIFTING EAST OF I-65. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER-80S, WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING IN THE LOW-70S.
TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER, THAT AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES TO DROP INTO LOW-60S MONDAY MORNING.
/44/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL BEGINNING ON MONDAY, AS THE
FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE REAL COOL
DOWN SHOULD BEGIN ON TUESDAY, WHEN THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUPPORT
IN THE UPPER-LEVELS, ALLOWING FOR COOLER AIR TO QUICKLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTH, TO THE MID-80S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
"STABILIZE" BY WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID-80S
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
ALL TERMINALS CARRYING PROB30S FOR TSRA PAST 24/01Z. TONIGHT,
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY 24/06Z, WITH MOST
TERMINALS REACHING LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND THIS TIME FOR VIS AND
CIGS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY DECREASING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ONCE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY, THEN THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MINRH VALUES WILL ALSO DROP BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE UPPER-30% RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT BEING SAID, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE
TO NONE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 86 62 84 / 20 30 0 0
ANNISTON 69 85 64 84 / 20 40 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 71 86 66 85 / 20 30 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 72 90 67 88 / 10 20 0 0
CALERA 71 86 66 86 / 20 30 0 0
AUBURN 69 84 67 87 / 20 30 0 0
MONTGOMERY 71 88 68 90 / 20 30 0 0
TROY 69 86 68 89 / 20 30 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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