428
FXUS64 KBMX 240530
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
WE'LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST
HITTING 90.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AL
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING THE GULF COAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS AS A DRY FRONT WITH
LIMITED TO NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF.
25/OWEN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO
THOSE LOWER HIGHS. THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, BUT
TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION, SO WILL KEEP OVERALL RAIN PROBABILITIES
IN THE 15-30% RANGE FOR NOW. |
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NEXT 6 - 8 HOURS AS
LOW CIGS BUILD IN ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW VIS. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS DROPPING TO IFR TO LIFR BY
10-14Z. CIGS AND VIS IMPROVE BY 14-15Z AND WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED PROB30S FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST SITES AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WE'LL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS OF 15
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MIN RHS MONDAY COULD DROP
INTO THE LOW 30% RANGE. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 86 62 84 60 / 40 0 0 0
ANNISTON 85 64 84 60 / 40 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 86 66 85 63 / 30 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 90 67 88 65 / 20 0 0 0
CALERA 86 66 86 63 / 30 0 0 0
AUBURN 84 67 87 63 / 30 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 88 68 90 64 / 30 0 0 0
TROY 86 68 89 63 / 30 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...25/OWEN
LONG TERM....25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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