076
FXUS64 KBMX 241111
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
WE'LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST
HITTING 90.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT, REACHING THE GULF COAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS AS A DRY FRONT
WITH LIMITED RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF.
25/OWEN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO
THOSE LOWER HIGHS. THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, BUT
TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION, SO WILL KEEP OVERALL RAIN PROBABILITIES
IN THE 15-30% RANGE FOR NOW.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF MGM OVERNIGHT, THREW A LITTLE
KINK IN THE FORECAST AND DID NOT ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST. WE ARE SEEING SOME LOW END MVFR BEGIN TO IMPACT
ASN, MGM AND AUO BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE IFR AND IR LIFR
WILL BE AS PREVALENT AS FORECAST THROUGH 15Z. THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER, THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WILL BE
APPROACHING TCL, BHM AND ASN BY 16 TO 17Z. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
IN VCSH AROUND THAT TIME WITH A TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH
SITE. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE RAIN/STORMS WILL BE DONE BY 22
TO 00Z SO DO NOT HAVE ANY RAIN PAST THAT TIME PERIOD. SKIES CLEAR
OUT OF 2 TO 4Z WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS TIME TIME MONDAY MORNING.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE
TO COMMS ISSUES.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WE'LL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS OF 15
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MIN RHS MONDAY COULD DROP
INTO THE LOW 30% RANGE. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 85 62 83 61 / 40 0 0 0
ANNISTON 84 63 83 60 / 50 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 87 65 85 63 / 30 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 91 66 88 64 / 20 0 0 0
CALERA 87 65 85 63 / 40 0 0 0
AUBURN 85 67 85 63 / 40 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 88 67 88 64 / 30 10 0 0
TROY 87 67 88 62 / 30 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...25/OWEN
LONG TERM....25/OWEN
AVIATION...16
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