874
FXUS64 KBMX 251123
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE INT HE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AS A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT, WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
25/OWEN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKIER WITH
DECENT SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
HAS A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR CENTRAL AL. THERE'S A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (30-50%)FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
A COLD FRONT IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF MGM. UNTIL IT PASSES NEXT HOUR
OR TWO VIS WILL BE REDUCED ALONG WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS. BY 14Z WE
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT. AFTER THAT VFR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS. UP TO 8 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16 TO 18Z
THROUGH 00 TO 2Z, THEN CALM OVERNIGHT.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE
TO COMMS ISSUES.
16
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH MORE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINS. MIN RHS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30% RANGE TODAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 83 61 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 83 61 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 84 64 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 88 65 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 86 64 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 86 63 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 88 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 88 63 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...25/OWEN
LONG TERM....25/OWEN
AVIATION...16
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