276
FXUS64 KBMX 260041
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
741 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 741 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
IT'S A COMFORTABLE EVENING OUT THERE WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. SOME HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, BUT THE AIRMASS IS MUCH
DRIER AND DEWPOINTS MIXED DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR MANY COMMUNITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S TONIGHT.
A SUBTLE IMPULSE IN THE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW, OTHERWISE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY RANGING FROM 35 TO 50%.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
THE LONG-TERM IS BEST SUMMARIZED BY THIS: MORE COLD FRONTS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID-80S. THE SECOND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THAT COOL, DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET UNDER BY THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR
RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE THIRD FRONTAL BOUNDARY "PASSAGE"
SOMETIME CLOSER TO FRIDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THIS FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME DEFUSE, ALLOWING FOR A SHORTWAVE TO RIDE THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES SUSTAINED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR TAFS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST AT TIMES AROUND 5 TO 7
KTS WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS OR A SLIGHT BREEZE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OF WHICH IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS NEAR TCL TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING, EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT NO IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING
MINRH VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30% TO LOW 40% RANGE. THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW, KEEPING MINRH VALUES IN THIS RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE THIRD COLD FRONT IN
THE FORECAST PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE LIMITED DRYING
PATTERN, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 80 56 82 / 10 10 0 0
ANNISTON 60 80 56 81 / 10 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 64 80 58 83 / 10 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 65 82 60 86 / 10 20 0 0
CALERA 64 81 59 83 / 10 20 0 0
AUBURN 63 83 61 83 / 0 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 63 86 61 86 / 0 10 0 0
TROY 63 86 62 85 / 0 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...86
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