861
FXUS64 KBMX 262303
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
THANK GOODNESS FOR A QUIET SHORT-TERM. COOL, DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER-50S AND LOW-60S, WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING IN
THE LOW TO UPPER-80S.
/44/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY AM, AS A SHORTWAVE
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. WHILE WE'VE BEEN DRIER AT THE SURFACE, THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO TAP INTO.
BECAUSE OF THAT, RAIN AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY BE PRETTY DECENT, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING IN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THAT
WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH THIS NEW BOUNDARY EBBING AND
FLOWING BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVERHEAD. IF THE FRONT RETROGRADES
FARTHER NORTH, THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL FOLLOW. IF THE FRONT STAYS
FARTHER SOUTH, THEN THAT'S WHERE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN. ASIDE FROM THE
RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE, WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF WINDOW.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 30-40% RANGE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS, BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
INCREASE BOTH MINRH VALUES, AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES INTO THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE LIMITED DRYING PERIOD, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 56 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 59 83 62 81 / 0 0 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 59 85 62 83 / 10 0 0 20
CALERA 58 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 61 84 63 83 / 10 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 61 86 61 87 / 10 0 0 10
TROY 61 85 61 87 / 10 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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