362
FXUS64 KBMX 111011
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
511 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IS ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH EXPANSIVE
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WE'LL
ACTUALLY HAVE A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY WHICH WILL GRAZE CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A SCATTERING OF CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW
SPECKS ON THE RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT NOT
ANYTHING APPRECIABLE BEYOND A 10% POP AS THE AIRMASS IS STILL
QUITE DRY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
90S WEST TO UPPER 80S EAST WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY, AND
FORTUNATELY, WE'LL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE COOL MORNINGS WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE PERSISTENT RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE ALIGNED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LONGER WE REMAIN STUCK IN THIS OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN AND AS SOIL MOISTURE DECREASES, THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY BECAUSE AFTERNOON MIXING
WILL DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, SO HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE LIKELY EXPANSION OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
THE DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUR 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. MIN RHS WILL DROP INTO THE 30% RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME HIGHS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MINRHS DROPPING INTO THE 25-30% RANGE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, DRYING SOILS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 62 89 59 / 0 10 0 0
ANNISTON 88 62 88 61 / 0 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 90 66 90 65 / 0 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 91 67 92 65 / 0 10 0 0
CALERA 91 66 90 64 / 0 10 0 0
AUBURN 87 64 88 64 / 0 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 90 64 90 63 / 0 10 0 0
TROY 87 64 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION.../44/
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