746
FXUS64 KBMX 112349
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
A FEW STORMS ARE ACTUALLY ON RADAR AS WE APPROACH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
500MB VORT MAX THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
REGION. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT, MICROBURST COMPOSITES WERE
RUNNING HIGH DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY AND LED TO A FEW
DOWNBURST-TYPE WIND REPORTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM WAS ADDED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS A RESULT, AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF SOME OF THESE HOLD
TOGETHER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
CAMS ARE ACTUALLY HINTING AT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY DUE
TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
COULD A FEW FOLKS SEE A "SURPRISE" SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS? PERHAPS, AND WITH THE CAMS PRESENTING THE
POSSIBILITY, WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INITIATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE
OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE DAYTIME
HEAT WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD, LARGELY AIDED BY DECREASING
SOIL MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN AT 5 PERCENT
OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OR CALM
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
THE DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUR 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. MIN RHS WILL DROP INTO THE 30% RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME HIGHS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MINRHS DROPPING INTO THE 25-30% RANGE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, DRYING SOILS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 62 88 61 89 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 63 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 92 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 66 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 64 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 65 91 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 64 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...56/GDG
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