950
FXUS64 KBMX 120558
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1258 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY
REINFORCING THE DRY, NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE
IS ONE LINGERING STORM NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT THIS
HOUR, BUT 1000-500MB RH WILL DECREASE FROM 55% TO AROUND 35-40%
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST.
PERSISTENT AND EXPANSIVE RIDGING CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST WILL
LEAD TO NEAR IDENTICAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST AND LOW
HUMIDITY.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARDS THE MID 90S BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH COOL MORNINGS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASE TO AROUND 30-40% DURING THE HOTTEST PART
OF THE DAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SKC WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS AND SCT FAIR WX CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTH AROUND 4 TO 7 KTS DURING THE DAY THEN CALM BY 01Z.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A HOT AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH OUR 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. MIN RHS WILL DROP INTO
THE 30% RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DAYTIME HIGHS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINRHS DROPPING INTO THE 30-35%
RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, DRYING
SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME
MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 61 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 87 62 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 90 65 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 92 65 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 91 64 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 88 64 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 90 64 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 89 64 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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