748
FXUS64 KBMX 121746
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY
REINFORCING THE DRY, NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE
IS ONE LINGERING STORM NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT THIS
HOUR, BUT 1000-500MB RH WILL DECREASE FROM 55% TO AROUND 35-40%
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST.
PERSISTENT AND EXPANSIVE RIDGING CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST WILL
LEAD TO NEAR IDENTICAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST AND LOW
HUMIDITY.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARDS THE MID 90S BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH COOL MORNINGS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASE TO AROUND 30-40% DURING THE HOTTEST PART
OF THE DAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A HOT AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH OUR 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. MIN RHS WILL DROP INTO
THE 30% RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DAYTIME HIGHS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINRHS DROPPING INTO THE 30-35%
RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, DRYING
SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME
MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 61 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 62 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 66 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 66 92 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 64 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 64 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 64 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 64 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION.../61/
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