863
FXUS64 KBMX 121815
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
115 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
IN THE SHORT TERM, ALABAMA REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN UPPER FLOW
REGIME, CAUGHT BETWEEN A TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX UP TO THE NORTHERN MS VALLEY.
THE GULF REMAINS ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF, AND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY (POPS 5% OR LESS) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/61/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS INDICATED IN AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (ROUGHLY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY). AROUND THAT TIME, OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE PRIMARY GLOBAL
MODELS DO START TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE ON EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND BRINGING SOME MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE EAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW, WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE BASED MODEL BLENDS. BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF WE END UP INCLUDING SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AT
LEAST A PART OF OUR AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A HOT AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH OUR 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. MIN RHS WILL DROP INTO
THE 30% RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DAYTIME HIGHS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINRHS DROPPING INTO THE 30-35%
RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, DRYING
SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME
MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 61 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 62 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 66 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 66 92 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 64 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 64 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 64 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 64 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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