165
FXUS64 KBMX 122348
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALOFT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE 700-500MB LAYER AS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. AS A RESULT,
WE'VE SEEN THE DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND DROPPING
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S. BIRMINGHAM OBSERVED A DEWPOINT OF 50
AS OF THE LAST HOUR, WHICH HAS LED TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUD
BASES AS HIGH AS 8000 FEET. DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT, WE'RE
SEEING JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE TO LIFT PARCELS PAST
THE HIGH LCLS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. I ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT THROUGH 9PM,
BUT THAT'S PROBABLY BEING A LITTLE TOO GENEROUS IN TERMS OF
DURATION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. AFTER
COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH MOSTLY CALM WINDS, ANOTHER
HOT DAY WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
EASTWARD. FOLKS ATTENDING OUTDOOR EVENTS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY NEED TO MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND NO RAIN CHANCES TO SPEAK OF.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS INDICATED IN AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (ROUGHLY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY). AROUND THAT TIME, OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE PRIMARY GLOBAL
MODELS DO START TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE ON EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN. ECMWF IN PARTICULAR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND BRINGING SOME MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE EAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW, WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE BASED MODEL BLENDS. BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF WE END UP INCLUDING SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AT
LEAST A PART OF OUR AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A HOT AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH OUR 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. MIN RHS WILL DROP INTO
THE 30% RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DAYTIME HIGHS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINRHS DROPPING INTO THE 30-35%
RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, DRYING
SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME
MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 62 88 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 65 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 66 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 64 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 64 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 64 90 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 64 88 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...56/GDG
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