517
FXUS64 KBMX 130614
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
114 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO ENJOY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN. CONTINENTAL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AIR TO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING STABLE CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE MOSTLY BEGUN TO STABILIZE, SO HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER 80S
EAST. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL PROMOTE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
BY MONDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT VARIATION IN THE PATTERN WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS FEATURE MAY RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST WHICH COULD
INTRODUCE SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME
IS MAINTAINING THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, SO LONG-TERM POPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10% FOR THE TIME BEING, AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SKC WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS AND SCT FAIR WX CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 4 TO 7 KTS DURING THE DAY THEN CALM BY
01Z.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A HOT AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RHS WILL DROP
INTO THE 30-40% RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, DRYING
SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 60 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 88 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 90 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 92 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 91 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 87 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 89 63 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 87 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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