738
FXUS64 KBMX 131716
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS THE REGION
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST, AND A TROUGH TO
THE EAST. BECAUSE OF THIS, MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
LIMITED, WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S, WITH LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS
RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
/44/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE LONG-TERM
FORECAST, WITH THE REGION REMAINING UNDER VARIOUS STAGES OF
INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THAT BEING SAID, IT
APPEARS AS IF THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF AND
RETROGRADE WEST. WHILE NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS RETROGRADING
LOW, IT SHOULD AT LEAST STABILIZE TEMPERATURES THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE
UPPER-80S TO MID-90S, WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE MID-60S.
THERE IS ALSO SOME EARLY INDICATION THAT THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WHILE THE OVERALL
IMPLICATIONS OF THIS LONGWAVE REMAIN TO BE SEEN, ODDS ARE WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL DOWN IN THE 8-10 FORECAST RANGE.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE, WITH D1-D2
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED WITH
NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF DRYING CONDITIONS. MINRH VALUES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30-40%, WITH WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY LIGHT
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 61 88 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 65 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 65 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 64 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 62 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 63 89 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 62 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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