967
FXUS64 KBMX 140610
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY AND
MEANDER OVER THE CAROLINAS, SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING WEST AT TIMES.
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE LOW AND ELONGATED
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TODAY'S FORECAST WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT BOOST IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE. LATEST HI-RES RUNS AND HREF MEAN QPF SUGGESTS SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT A FEW
LUCKY SPOTS COULD RECEIVE A MUCH NEEDED DOWNPOUR. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY,
POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING SOME LOW POPS LIKE MONDAY. WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW SINCE CHANCES ARE SO CONDITIONAL IN THIS SETUP
WITH THE RIDGE STILL LOOMING OVER THE REGION. SIGNALS ARE INCREASING
THAT THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY HOT AND DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SEE TO SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND VFR TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY WITH
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES. OTHER THAN SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON,
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE, WITH D1-D2
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS, COUPLED WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WILL
ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED PERIOD OF DRYING CONDITIONS. MINRH VALUES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 30-40%, WITH WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY
LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 63 88 61 / 10 0 10 0
ANNISTON 88 64 87 62 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 91 68 90 66 / 0 0 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 93 68 92 66 / 0 0 10 0
CALERA 91 67 91 65 / 0 0 10 0
AUBURN 88 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 89 65 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 87 63 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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