764
FXUS64 KBMX 142304
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
604 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
PRESENTLY, AN UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE JACKSONVILLE, FL
AREA WHILE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WHILE A COMPACT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OFFSHORE
OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AS A FEW AREAS OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST,
REMAINING GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS, A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
GLOBAL MODELS OF SOME MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MIGRATING SOUTHWEST OVER
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WHILE NOT DEPICTED IN THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE, EXPECT ISOLATED (10-20%) CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME GENERALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES.
05
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AT LEAST D0 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
DEPICTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA PER THE LATEST NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR ANALYSIS. FORECAST
HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL DECREASE TO READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY VALUES IN THE MID
60S LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY, AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, SOME GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BECOMING ELONGATED WESTWARD TO A
SUFFICIENT EXTENT IN ORDER TO ALLOW A FEW ADDITIONAL MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL IMPULSES TO MIGRATE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST AS PRESENTED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, MIGRATING OVER THE
MID-ATLNTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE LIKELY
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A DEEP TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND. WHAT CAN BE
BEST DESCRIBED AS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AND SHIFT FURTHER EAST WITH TIME
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS MORE FAVORABLE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED (10-30%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, FAVORING
ISOLATED (10-25%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST POTENTIAL FAR
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND ISOLATED (10- 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 22 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 280 CORRIDORS WITH BEST POTENTIAL
NORTHEAST.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN D0 TO D1 DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THAT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
FURTHER WITH TIME. THE PROSPECT FOR BENEFICIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS SOIL
MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE DUE TO EFFECTIVE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30
TO 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 65 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 69 88 66 90 / 0 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 90 67 92 / 10 10 0 0
CALERA 67 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 65 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 66 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 63 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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