236
FXUS64 KBMX 151106
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE SPINNING OFF TO
OUR EAST OVER THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
WITHIN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW WILL PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A STORM ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ACTUALLY ON RADAR AS WE SPEAK ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE, STRETCHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA. AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD, THEY HAVE BEEN VERY SHORT-LIVED
AND HAVEN'T HAD ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. WE'LL KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM, AS A ROGUE SHOWER ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH 4AM. SOME OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING A
CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A
STORM ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. AS A RESULT,
I'VE ADDED IN A 15 POP ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 BETWEEN 1PM
AND 7PM DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE, HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE TODAY AS HIGHS
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS THE CLOSED
LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CAROLINAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGGED BY CAM MEMBERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTH GEORGIA HIGHER ELEVATIONS, PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW, POPS HAVE
NOT BEEN MENTIONED BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADDED OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST UPDATES BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS. OTHERWISE, HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
LONG-RANGE FORECAST TRENDS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
MOST CERTAINLY BECOME ONE OF OUR MAIN STORYLINES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE LAST HALF OF SEPTEMBER, WITH D1 AND D2 DROUGHT ALREADY PRESENT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WE CAN EXPECT THOSE DROUGHT
AREAS TO EXPAND EASTWARD WITH VERY LITTLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ALOFT WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES BY FRIDAY WITH A TROUGH AXIS AND
SWINGING EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THAT COULD MEAN THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT BEING HONEST THAT MAY BE ON THE
HIGH END IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN HOT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
A VFR TAF FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SURFACE
RIDGING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE GENERALLY, BUT THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING FOR SOME ERLY 5-7KTS WINDS AT MGM/AUO TODAY.
THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A TSTM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEATING AT THE TAF SITES, BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION ATTM IN TAFS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN D0 TO D1 DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THAT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
FURTHER WITH TIME. THE PROSPECT FOR BENEFICIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS SOIL
MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE DUE TO EFFECTIVE
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30
TO 40 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 62 89 63 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 89 63 88 64 / 20 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 90 67 90 67 / 20 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 92 67 92 67 / 20 0 0 0
CALERA 91 65 91 65 / 20 0 0 0
AUBURN 87 64 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 90 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 88 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....56/GDG
AVIATION...08
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