760
FXUS64 KBMX 152309
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
609 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND ARKLATEX REGION AND AN
UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TENNESSEE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA WHILE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS ANALYZED JUST OFFSHORE OF COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA.
AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST MIGRATES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST, AN INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW
DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH HIGH ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED MOSTLY
DRY AND ABOVE- AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD INCREASING
INSTABILITY THAT WILL CHALLENGE THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE RESULT WILL BE
ISOLATED (15-30% ) CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKNESS.
SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE POPS FROM THE BLEND TO THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL PERSIST AS
WORSENING DRY GROUND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, RESULTING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE LOWER AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY PRESENT
COMPARED TO TYPICAL.
05
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WHILE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONSOLIDATES FURTHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ARE FORECAST WHILE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LOOK TO MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BECOMING MORE DEFINED OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING IN THE
RIDGING LOCALLY AND WILL HELP ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED (10-20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED (15-30%) CHANCES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL GENERALLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED (15-25%) CHANCES
ARE DEPICTED GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 22 AND
U.S. HIGHWAY 280 CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES FAR
NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE LOWER
90S THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE UPPER 80S
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST HOUR WITH GUSTS UP TO 15
KNOTS NOTED. THIS SHOULDN'T LAST TOO MUCH LONGER AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH MUCH OF THE
WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN D0 TO D1 DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH RH MINIMUMS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 62 90 63 89 / 0 20 0 0
ANNISTON 63 88 65 87 / 0 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 66 90 67 90 / 0 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 67 92 / 0 10 0 0
CALERA 64 91 66 91 / 0 10 0 0
AUBURN 64 88 66 88 / 0 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 62 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 61 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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