571
FXUS64 KBMX 161102
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
602 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION TODAY AS IT ROTATES AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. CAMS SHOW ISOLATED HIGH-
BASED ACTIVITY FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY
IS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN THE LOW LEVELS; THUS, THIS MAY PAN OUT IN THE FORM OF SHORT-
LIVED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO HREF GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT'LL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR 90.
DURING THE EVENING, HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS AN 850MB AXIS,
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE, DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM TENNESSEE. THIS
FEATURE, ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, COULD HELP TO SPAWN
SPOTTY ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF BIRMINGHAM,
AND IS EXPLICITLY SHOWN BY A FEW CAMS.
THERE'S NOT A LOT OF CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO COASTAL VIRGINIA. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. CHANCES MAY CLIMB CLOSER TO 20%
FROM THE CURRENT 10%. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN AVERAGE NEAR
90.
89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE LATE THIS WEEK AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A LARGER
TROUGH. IN ITS WAKE, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE NIL TO
MINIMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WHICH IS BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW US TO KNOCK A FEW
DEGREES OFF OUR AFTERNOON WARMTH, BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S, AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST "LOW" SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A VFR TAF FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SURFACE
RIDGING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE. A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE THROUGH NRLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL BRING AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A TSTM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING FOR SOME OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM IN TAFS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
D0 TO D1 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF ALABAMA, THOUGH LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE ARE TRENDING IN THIS
DIRECTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (< 10 MPH) AND VARIABLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30% RANGE COULD OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 63 89 63 / 20 20 10 0
ANNISTON 88 65 88 65 / 20 20 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 91 68 90 67 / 10 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 91 67 92 67 / 10 0 10 0
CALERA 91 67 91 67 / 10 0 10 0
AUBURN 88 66 88 66 / 20 10 10 0
MONTGOMERY 91 65 91 66 / 10 10 10 0
TROY 88 63 89 65 / 10 0 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...08
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