613
FXUS64 KBMX 161729
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A PATTERN SHIFT IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
THAT COULD GIVE SOME RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BRINGS NORTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT WRINKLE TO THAT IS THE SOUTHERNLY SURFACE FLOW
THAT MAY BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF
SO, THAT WILL HELP WITH SOME LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND A FEW MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH, HOWEVER, AS THE OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK IS STARTING TO LOOK BETTER IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AS A
WHOLESALE PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL BEING FEATURED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE WILL PROVIDE SOME MORE UPDATES AND DETAILS AS TIME
APPROACHES, BUT THE OUTLOOKS ARE SHOWING A 40% CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
17/KLAWS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED.
17/KLAWS
FIRE WEATHER
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
THE AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL RESIDE IN THE 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET
RE-ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER, ANY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL WILL NOT BE LIKELY UNTIL A PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK.
17/KLAWS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 90 64 89 64 / 20 20 20 0
ANNISTON 88 65 88 65 / 20 20 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 91 69 91 68 / 10 10 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 92 67 93 66 / 10 0 20 0
CALERA 91 67 92 67 / 10 0 20 0
AUBURN 89 66 89 67 / 20 10 20 0
MONTGOMERY 90 64 91 66 / 10 10 20 0
TROY 88 63 90 65 / 10 0 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17/KLAWS
LONG TERM....17/KLAWS
AVIATION...17/KLAWS
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