384
FXUS64 KBMX 171129
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
ADDITIONAL SUBTLE IMPULSES ALOFT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD
ATOP OUR REGION TODAY, GUIDED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
COASTAL VIRGINIA. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A BROAD PATTERN OF CONFLUENCE
WILL CONTINUE. THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT TIMES.
AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS YESTERDAY, WE'VE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM TENNESSEE (AT 1:10 AM
WEDNESDAY) ALONG A LOW-LEVEL AXIS OF CONVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW
PROPAGATION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS NORTHEAST
AND THEN EAST OF BIRMINGHAM THROUGH THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DOT CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS AGAIN SHOW A
SOUTHWARD-MOVING, LOW-LEVEL AXIS OF LIFT WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT,
WITH A FEW CAMS SUGGESTING SPOTTY ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE 20 AND 85
CORRIDORS DURING THIS TIME. OVERALL, AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WON'T BE SIGNIFICANT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND DURATION, BUT CERTAINLY WELCOME WHERE IT OCCURS.
THE MID-ATLATIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP NORTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER
TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION. WHILE THE FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY, IT'S
CONCEIVABLE THAT A FEW CELLS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AN AXIS OF
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PWAT VALUES DRAPED ACROSS PART OF THE GULF COAST
REGION. A ~10-20% CHANCE MAY BE INTRODUCED PENDING TRENDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FORECAST FOR TODAY AND MORE-
SO IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY.
89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH, BY A MARGIN OF BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES,
CONTINUES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH NIL TO VERY LIMITED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A PATTERN OF TROUGHING IS THEN
PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME
(~20 PERCENT).
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
A VFR TAF FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SURFACE
RIDGING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THROUGH NRLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER VA WILL BRING AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A TSTM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING FOR THE C AL TAF SITES, BUT THE CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM IN TAFS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
D0 TO D1 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF ALABAMA, THOUGH LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE ARE TRENDING IN THIS
DIRECTION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON RHS AS LOW AS THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S ARE FORECAST, ALONG WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AND LIGHT WINDS (<10 MPH) VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 90 64 91 62 / 20 20 0 0
ANNISTON 89 65 90 63 / 20 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 92 68 92 67 / 20 20 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 94 68 94 67 / 20 20 0 0
CALERA 92 68 93 66 / 20 20 0 0
AUBURN 89 67 90 66 / 20 20 0 0
MONTGOMERY 92 68 93 67 / 20 20 0 0
TROY 89 66 90 66 / 20 20 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...08
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