358
FXUS64 KBMX 171655
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA, ROTATING AROUND
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A LOW-END CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS REFERENCED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
TRENDS HAVE INDICATED THE NEED TO INTRODUCE A 15-20% RAIN CHANCE FOR
TOMORROW AS WELL, WHICH WAS DONE WITH THIS UPDATE. NEARLY ALL CAMS
HAVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW, CONTINUING UNTIL AT LEAST 3Z. FOR TOMORROW, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF I-20, ESPECIALLY AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON. ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALSO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT IS LESS CERTAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW.
12
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
12
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH, BY A MARGIN OF BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES,
CONTINUES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH NIL TO VERY LIMITED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A PATTERN OF TROUGHING IS THEN
PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME
(~20 PERCENT).
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE DOES EXIST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO AFFECT A TERMINAL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
12
FIRE WEATHER
D0 TO D1 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF ALABAMA, THOUGH LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE ARE TRENDING IN THIS
DIRECTION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON RHS AS LOW AS THE LOW TO
MID 30S ARE FORECAST, ALONG WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LIGHT WINDS (<8 MPH), VARIABLE IN DIRECTION, EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY, BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
BY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 63 91 63 / 20 20 20 10
ANNISTON 88 64 89 65 / 20 20 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 92 68 92 68 / 20 20 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 94 67 94 68 / 20 20 20 10
CALERA 91 66 93 67 / 20 20 20 10
AUBURN 88 66 89 67 / 20 20 20 20
MONTGOMERY 92 66 93 68 / 20 20 20 20
TROY 90 64 91 66 / 20 20 20 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page