831
FXUS64 KBMX 172347
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA, ROTATING AROUND
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A LOW-END CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS REFERENCED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
TRENDS HAVE INDICATED THE NEED TO INTRODUCE A 15-20% RAIN CHANCE FOR
TOMORROW AS WELL, WHICH WAS DONE WITH THIS UPDATE. NEARLY ALL CAMS
HAVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW, CONTINUING UNTIL AT LEAST 3Z. FOR TOMORROW, COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF I-20, ESPECIALLY AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON. ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALSO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT IS LESS CERTAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW.
12
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
12
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH, BY A MARGIN OF BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES,
CONTINUES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH NIL TO VERY LIMITED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A PATTERN OF TROUGHING IS THEN
PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME
(~20 PERCENT).
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
THUNDER WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BEFORE LEAVING THE
REMAINING FM GROUPS. BEYOND THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD. THE LONE HOLD OUT IS KASN, WHERE
RECENT RAINFALL AND REDUCED WINDS WILL LEAD TO IFR VIS PAST
18/06Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
D0 TO D1 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF ALABAMA, THOUGH LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE ARE TRENDING IN THIS
DIRECTION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON RHS AS LOW AS THE LOW TO
MID 30S ARE FORECAST, ALONG WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LIGHT WINDS (<8 MPH), VARIABLE IN DIRECTION, EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY, BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
BY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 91 63 92 / 30 20 10 0
ANNISTON 64 89 65 91 / 30 20 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 68 92 68 93 / 30 20 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 67 94 68 94 / 20 20 10 0
CALERA 66 93 67 94 / 30 20 10 0
AUBURN 66 89 67 91 / 30 20 20 0
MONTGOMERY 66 93 68 94 / 20 20 20 0
TROY 64 91 66 91 / 20 20 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION.../44/
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