194
FXUS64 KBMX 180610
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF SHELBY AND TALLADEGA COUNTIES AS OF
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. OUTFLOW INTERACTION, ALONG WITH A WEAK BUT
EVIDENT AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, SHOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY
TO PERSIST FOR A TAD LONGER WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL CELLS POPPING
FARTHER SOUTH DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT.
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS TODAY AND FRIDAY. AS HAS
BEEN THE TREND THE PAST TWO NIGHTS, OUTFLOW AND A FEW CORRIDORS
OF CONVERGENCE SHOWN IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD SOME
SPOTTY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ABOVE-NORMAL DAYTIME WARMTH CONTINUES,
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S PLACING US
BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AREN'T TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK; MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY WITH
MODELS SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR PARTS OF THE
GULF COAST REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED.
MODELS SHOW A JET IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
YIELDING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE CONFIGURATION IS A BIT DIFFERENT AMONGST
MODEL MEMBERS, THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE CLIMBED A
TOUCH, NOW ~30% BY THE NBM FOR A COUPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK, AND MAY
DO SO AGAIN LOOKING AT THE COVERAGE ON GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES, SHOULD
THIS SIGNAL HOLD.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EET THROUGH AS LATE AS 08Z
TONIGHT/THURSDAY; OTHERWISE, VFR CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING ABOUT
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY. FOG MAY AFFECT ASN AND EET,
IF CLOUDS CLEAR, AS THOSE LOCATIONS PICKED UP SOME RAIN.
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR ANY GIVEN
TERMINAL; WE'LL MONITOR SATELLITE/RADAR FOR AMENDMENTS. WINDS
WILL FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY HEADING AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM ~15Z
ONWARD, THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME VARIABILITY AT TIMES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS WILL BE AS LOW AS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM
PERCENTAGES WILL BE A TAD HIGHER NEXT WEEK AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
PERHAPS A TREND TOWARD SCATTERED COVERAGE NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY AT TIMES, WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH HEADING TODAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY MAY BE
VARIABLE AS WE TREND TOWARD SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY ONWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 62 92 63 / 20 10 20 0
ANNISTON 89 65 91 65 / 20 10 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 92 68 93 67 / 20 10 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 95 68 94 67 / 20 20 20 0
CALERA 93 68 93 67 / 20 20 20 0
AUBURN 90 68 91 67 / 20 20 20 0
MONTGOMERY 92 68 93 67 / 20 20 20 0
TROY 91 67 91 66 / 20 20 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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