735
FXUS64 KBMX 111739
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1239 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER AIR (DOWN TO ~.6" PER LATEST GOES TPW)
WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER COOL START SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S. WE ADD ON A DEGREE OR TWO TOMORROW AS HIGHS SETTLE
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE.
EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARMING TREND KICKING IN WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AL.
95/CASTILLO
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, A VERY PROMINENT 500 MB RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A WARMING TREND
WILL ACCOMPANY THE EXPANDING RIDGE, AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BY
MIDWEEK MAY BE JUST A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. THERE IS
NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AT AUO/MGM FOR ANOTHER HOUR TWO BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALONG WITH ALL OTHER SITES.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
MINRHS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. 20 FOOT WINDS MAY APPROACH 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUR SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUR RISK INCREASES
TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA. OUTDOOR BURNING REMAINS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 50 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 53 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 52 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 54 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 53 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 52 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM....95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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