056
FXUS64 KBMX 122305
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
605 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A TROUGH CHURNING ALONG THE EAST COAST
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH GOES TPW IMAGERY SHOWING PWATS DOWN
AROUND 0.5". INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND THIS INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
WILL KEEP US DRY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL KICK IN TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL FEEL RATHER
PLEASANT OUTSIDE WITH ALL THE DRY AIR AROUND. LOWS TONIGHT FALL BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES CONTROL. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN
SHIFT LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WHILE POTENTIALLY SENDING A COLD FRONT OUR WAY. WE ARE STILL
NEAR A WEEK OUT SO THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR THE TRENDS
OF.
TIME TO TALK DROUGHT - THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR REVEALS A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. DUE TO
ONGOING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE COMING MONTHS. AS A
RESULT, THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A FIRE DANGER
ADVISORY. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR BURNING. IF YOU DO BURN, IT IS
ESSENTIAL TO MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AND ENSURE THE FIRE IS
EXTINGUISHED. EXERCISE CAUTION IF USING MACHINERY OR VEHICLES IN
AREAS OF DRY BRUSH OR GRASS. MORE AT FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
A VFR FORECAST FOR C AL SITES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THANKS TO E CONUS RIDGING. LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS
SHOULD BE NOTED OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY WITH MIXING, LOOK FOR
NNW-N WINDS 5-9KTS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA. OUR SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW TODAY. HOWEVER,
O OUR RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTDOOR BURNING
REMAINS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 51 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 53 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 52 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 54 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 52 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 52 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM....95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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