065
FXUS64 KBMX 130457
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS TO OUR EAST, WHILE A RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
ARK-LA-TEX REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD,
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS THE UPPER 80S IN
A FEW LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THOUGH SOME MODEST PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE
TO OUR WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD. EVENTUALLY THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO SUPPORT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
87/GRANTHAM
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 27-35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY.
20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. OUTDOOR
BURNING REMAINS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 51 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 53 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 52 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 54 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 52 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 52 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...87/GRANTHAM
LONG TERM....87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION...87/GRANTHAM
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