029
FXUS64 KBMX 131739
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1239 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
50S AGAIN TONIGHT.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE IS A BIT MORE AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL
PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WHILE SENDING A COLD FRONT OUR WAY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME, THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST
WITHIN AN AREA SPC IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING WITH A SLIGHT RISK ON
DAY 6. WITH THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
TRENDS AS DETAILS CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
TIME TO TALK DROUGHT (AGAIN) - THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR REVEALS A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DUE TO ONGOING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE COMING
MONTHS. AS A RESULT, THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A
FIRE DANGER ADVISORY. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR BURNING. IF YOU DO
BURN, IT IS ESSENTIAL TO MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AND ENSURE
THE FIRE IS EXTINGUISHED. EXERCISE CAUTION IF USING MACHINERY OR
VEHICLES IN AREAS OF DRY BRUSH OR GRASS. MORE AT
FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY. 20
FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. OUTDOOR BURNING
REMAINS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 54 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 56 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 55 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 57 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 55 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 54 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM....95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page