248
FXUS64 KBMX 141049
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ARKLATEX.
WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR TODAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS WARMING
INTO THE MID 80S. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL SUPPORT A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTHEAST MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO RISE. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORCED
EASTWARD BY THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S
DURING THE DAY TO 50S/60S AT NIGHT. WE FINALLY GET A SHOT AT SOME
RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH AXIS EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS,
SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY, BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
AXIS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST
DURING THE DAY WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH REGION.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DECREASED FORCING
COULD BE A HINDRANCE TO A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WE WILL BEGIN TO NARROW DOWN THE DETAILS
LATER THIS WEEK. FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.25"
NORTHWEST TO LESS THAN 0.5" IN THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT DROUGHT BUSTING
BY ANY MEANS, BUT WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET AS RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY. 20
FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. OUTDOOR BURNING
REMAINS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 83 52 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 82 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 83 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 86 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 86 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 83 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 86 56 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 83 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION.../44/
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