528
FXUS64 KBMX 142326
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
626 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 618 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-70%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND NOON ON SUNDAY.
- PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY, BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
A 595 DECAMETER MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND DEVOLVE INTO A RIDGE AXIS AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD TO ALABAMA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
BEING AS HOT AS THEY COULD OTHERWISE BE, BUT THEY WILL STILL BE
AROUND 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL,
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY, CAUSING MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO INCREASE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
SUNDAY, REACHING THE EASTERN CONUS BY SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
THE FIRST SYSTEM OF THE FALL SEASON THAT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THOUGH POTENTIAL LOOKS MARGINAL
AT MOST AT THIS TIME. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH. MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME INDICATE A LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER TROUGH WHICH WOULD TEND TO GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT AROUND ONE THIRD DO HAVE A MORE AMPLIFIED,
SLOWER TROUGH WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW AND INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
WITH EITHER SOLUTION, HOWEVER, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND LAPSE RATES BEING WEAK TO
MODEST. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE
CONVECTION OUT-RUNNING THE INSTABILITY (DEPICTED INSTABILITY
APPEARING BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION). SO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS WELL
BELOW THE LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 NEEDED TO MESSAGE THIS FAR OUT, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME WESTERN AREAS END UP IN A LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5 RISK WHEN WE GET CLOSER.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND NOON SUNDAY. PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING AN INCH ARE LOW TO MEDIUM, BUT PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ARE VERY LOW TO LOW. COOLER AIR MOVES ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
A VFR FORECAST FOR C AL SITES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THANKS TO CONTINUED E CONUS RIDGING. LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY WITH MIXING, LOOK
FOR NRLY WINDS 4-7KTS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY. 20
FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. OUTDOOR BURNING
REMAINS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 52 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 53 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 56 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 55 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 55 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 58 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 56 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...08
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