934
FXUS64 KBMX 151110
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND NOON ON SUNDAY.
- PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY, BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE ARKLATEX TODAY,
INFLUENCING DRY, UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN EJECTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HERE
AT HOME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE 80S EACH DAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL SITUATED TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
INITIATE GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE SITUATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND
THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. A SEVERE THREAT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT BY
THE TIME THE RAIN AND STORMS REACH OUR FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS, A LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 5 SEVERE RISK MAY BE WARRANTED AS WE GET CLOSER AND ARE ABLE TO
BETTER ASSESS THE DETAILS. NO NEED TO INITIATE MESSAGING FOR THAT
POTENTIAL RISK AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD
RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE FAR FROM
DROUGHT-BUSTING. THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHILE FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE,
LARGELY DUE TO THE QUICK PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE SET TO RETURN ON MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER 592DM RIDGE WHICH WILL
CENTER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, BECOMING THE
DOMINANT FEATURE TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH, EARLY SIGNALS INDICATE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN AS OF LATE.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY. 20
FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. OUTDOOR BURNING
REMAINS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 85 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 84 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 86 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 88 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 88 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 85 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 87 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 85 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION.../44/
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page