022
FXUS64 KBMX 160042
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
742 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 739 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND 1 PM ON SUNDAY.
- PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY, BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEARBY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY, UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN EJECTING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS, EXPECT
GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH BETTER CHANCES OF CLOUDS ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AS THE EASTERLY INCREASES,
BUT WILL ONLY HAVE LIMITED AFFECTS ON THE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE 80S EACH DAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL SITUATED TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
INITIATE GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE SITUATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT BY THE TIME THE RAIN AND STORMS REACH OUR
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY. NONETHELESS, A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK MAY BE WARRANTED
AS WE GET CLOSER AND ARE ABLE TO BETTER ASSESS THE DETAILS. NO NEED
TO INITIATE MESSAGING FOR THAT POTENTIAL RISK AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE, THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE FAR FROM DROUGHT-BUSTING. THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES
OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE LESS
THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE, LARGELY DUE TO THE QUICK PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THAT COULD INCREASE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
ESSENTIALLY RESULTING IN THE AREAS IN WORST DROUGHT, SEEING THE
LEAST RAIN.
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE SET TO RETURN ON MONDAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
40S MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE, BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE TO MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VARIABLE
OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY UNDER 10 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY. 20 FOOT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. OUTDOOR BURNING REMAINS
HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 53 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 54 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 55 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 57 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 57 85 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 57 89 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 56 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...56/GDG
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