666
FXUS64 KBMX 161053
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
553 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND 1 PM ON SUNDAY.
- PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY, BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MIDSOUTH REGION WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS A DEEP, LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS THIS WEEK WITH MANY LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS IN
THE SOUTHWEST CRACKING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WE'LL BE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERS DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY
DRY, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OUT OF IT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RISE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED AND GRADUAL MOISTENING OF
THE AIRMASS AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
PROGRESSION FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST REGION. A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE ARKLATEX, SUPPORTING A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST.
THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND ITS ASSOCIATED RAINFALL HAS SLOWED
DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, BUT IS STILL GENERALLY ON
TRACK TO REACH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE
AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF RESIDUAL RIDGING OVER THE GULF WHICH MAY
SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS, AND THE MORE
ROBUST DYNAMICS, TO OUR NORTH. FACTOR THIS IN WITH POOR LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR OUR AREA IS MARGINAL AT WORST.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE 30-35 KTS OF BULK SHEAR
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT LARGELY EXPECTING
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. IT'S PLAUSIBLE A MARGINAL RISK
COULD BE INTRODUCED LATER FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT I
DON'T SEE AN URGENT NEED TO MESSAGE A SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS. OTHERWISE, QPF AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE
DECREASING, BUT WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE STILL INDICATING MEDIUM CHANCES OF
EXCEEDING ONE INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS FOR OUR MOST DROUGHT-STRICKEN
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY, SO EXPECT DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY, BUT THE DRY AIR MAY LIMIT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP FROM
OCCURRING. IF ANYTHING, IT SHOULD HELP TO REINFORCE A MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS NEXT TAF
CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN CALM CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON
FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT ASSOCIATED RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
ONE INCH, SO LITTLE TO NO DROUGHT RELIEF IS EXPECTED. 20 FOOT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. OUTDOOR BURNING REMAINS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 54 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 84 56 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 86 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 89 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 89 59 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 85 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 89 61 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 87 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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