268
FXUS64 KBMX 170700
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
200 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 139 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- THERE IS A LOW (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
THE I-20/59 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-90%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND 1 PM ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO GRAZE THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED COVERING OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY, BUT NO RAIN. EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
WITH SOME REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT, AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT AS COOL AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN
ARRIVING TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS COME IN LINE WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
AXIS WHICH MEANS BETTER DYNAMICS ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT AND ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE AREA,
~35-40 KT OF EFF. BULK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AS A WEAKENING QLCS
MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL HINDER
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WILL BE VISIBLE ON RADAR, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
IS LOW, AND THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. QPF
VALUES REMAIN IN THE ONE INCH OR LESS RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. THE DEEPER SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH WITH NO PROBLEM, AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO EXIT THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FALL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH
WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIRMASS, SO UNFORTUNATELY IT DOESN'T APPEAR
THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY RAIN OUT OF IT. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST REMAINS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL RESULT IN WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY MID-MORNING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NO
PRECIP. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 35-40 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RISING TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY ONE
INCH OR LESS, SO LITTLE TO NO DROUGHT RELIEF IS EXPECTED. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 20FT WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BY
MONDAY, AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED WITH MIN RH RANGING FROM 25-30%. OUTDOOR BURNING
REMAINS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 70
ANNISTON 83 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 60
BIRMINGHAM 85 65 85 65 / 0 0 0 70
TUSCALOOSA 89 65 89 65 / 0 0 0 80
CALERA 87 63 88 64 / 0 0 0 70
AUBURN 82 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 30
MONTGOMERY 87 62 87 66 / 0 0 0 40
TROY 84 60 84 63 / 0 0 0 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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