406
FXUS64 KBMX 171721
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- THERE IS A LOW (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
I-65/59 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND 1 PM ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THROUGH SUNDAY
EFFECTIVELY NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.
MAY REALIGN THE MARGINAL AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THEW SOUTHWEST.
THROUGH TONIGHT, WE ARE STILL CONTROLLED BY THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA, SO ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE. AS THIS RIDGE
MOVES EAST, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. EFFECTIVELY, THIS IS GOING TO ACT AS A
WARM FRONT, BUT WE REALLY DO NOT GET A LARGE INFLUX OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVERALL WEAK. YOU CAN SEE
SOME ECHOES ON RADAR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE IN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT
NOW. WITH THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER US, WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY, WITH JUST SOME ADDED CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES.
SATURDAY MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY, WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME FOR THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS (AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT).
SO BESIDES THAT, TIMING REALLY HAS NOT CHANGED BY A WHOLE LOT WITH
THE BIGGEST IMPACTS BEING OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND WITH THE STORMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH, DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE LIKELY CAUSED TREES TO LOSE SOME OF
THEIR STRENGTH SO THEY MAY FALL WITH WEAKER WINDS.
NO CHANGES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
16
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL
CAUSE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO GRAZE THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED COVERING OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY, BUT NO RAIN. EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
WITH SOME REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT, AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT AS COOL AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN
ARRIVING TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS COME IN LINE WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
AXIS WHICH MEANS BETTER DYNAMICS ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT AND ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE AREA,
~35-40 KT OF EFF. BULK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AS A WEAKENING QLCS
MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL HINDER
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WILL BE VISIBLE ON RADAR, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
IS LOW, AND THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. QPF
VALUES REMAIN IN THE ONE INCH OR LESS RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. THE DEEPER SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH WITH NO PROBLEM, AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO EXIT THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FALL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH
WILL ENCOUNTER A DRY AIRMASS, SO UNFORTUNATELY IT DOESN'T APPEAR
THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY RAIN OUT OF IT. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST REMAINS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL RESULT IN WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A VFR TAF FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE MAIN
SYSTEM STILL IS ABOUT 36 HOURS AWAY FROM BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE
AREA. SO WE WILL CONTINUE BASICALLY THE WIND/NO WIND FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME PASSING CIRRUS WILL BE
NOTED.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 35-40 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RISING TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY ONE
INCH OR LESS, SO LITTLE TO NO DROUGHT RELIEF IS EXPECTED. EXPECT
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 20FT WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BY
MONDAY, AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED WITH MIN RH RANGING FROM 25-30%. OUTDOOR BURNING
REMAINS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 62 85 62 74 / 0 0 70 60
ANNISTON 62 85 62 74 / 0 0 60 70
BIRMINGHAM 66 86 65 74 / 0 0 80 50
TUSCALOOSA 65 89 65 76 / 0 0 90 40
CALERA 64 88 63 76 / 0 0 80 50
AUBURN 62 83 63 78 / 0 0 30 70
MONTGOMERY 65 88 65 80 / 0 0 50 70
TROY 61 85 64 80 / 0 0 40 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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