146
FXUS64 KBMX 090536
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1136 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1133 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
A FREEZE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE UPPER 10S FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY
RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
THE CURRENT FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. THERE MAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG IN SPOTS
AFTER SUNSET, BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED LOWS UPWARDS A TOUCH WITH THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT FROST FORMATION, WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WATCH THERE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
20S AREAWIDE MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. RECORD "COOL HIGHS" WILL BE
IN JEOPARDY; SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW RH VALUES
IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT A SMALL
SCALE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF THE
EURO AND THE OUTLIERS VERIFY, THEN WE COULD SEE SOME NON-IMPACTFUL
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING
SEASON WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S, NEAR OR BELOW RECORD LOWS.
THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT REMAIN MOISTURE-
STARVED DUE TO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR MVFR TO IFR FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AT
TERMINALS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
ANY TAF. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY, PUTTING
AN END TO THE FOG AND RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT, BUT
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL GUST TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS. BY MONDAY RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE
HOURS IN ISOLATED SPOTS IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WITH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE. 20FT
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH RESULTING IN SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
ON TUESDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 60 27 41 / 20 10 10 0
ANNISTON 58 63 29 41 / 30 10 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 56 61 30 42 / 20 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 55 61 30 45 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 58 63 29 45 / 20 10 0 0
AUBURN 60 70 33 44 / 20 20 0 0
MONTGOMERY 59 71 34 46 / 20 10 0 0
TROY 60 72 34 46 / 20 20 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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