453
FXUS64 KBMX 091849
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1249 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1247 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT, FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
MONDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH, AND A LOW CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING
THE GROWING SEASON FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
ADVECTION DRIVEN, AND THIS WILL ALSO INHIBIT FROST FORMATION.
STILL, LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA, THUS A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WIND CHILLS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWERS 20S TOMORROW MORNING,
SO MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT YOU WOULD
HAVE TO GO TO THE SMOKIES TO SEE ANY IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. WITH THAT
SAID OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES, BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MUCH AT ALL. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEHIND THE LOW WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO US MONDAY NIGHT, CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM AND ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S, AND A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY WILL
CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO QUICKLY DEVELOP TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA BUT STILL NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER. RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. RAIN CHANCES MAY
RETURN TO THE WEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NOW. AUO STILL HAS SOME MVFR
BUT THIS SHOULD BE GONE BY 19Z AT THE LATEST. BIGGEST STORY WILL
BE THE WINDS FROM THE NW THROUGH MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 3Z WILL BE 15 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS UP 27 KTS.
WINDS "CALM" DOWN TO 10 TO 12 KTS AFTER 6Z, ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 15Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON MONDAY
RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE. 20FT WIND GUSTS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20
MPH RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS VERY
BORDERLINE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA BUT WILL WAIT ON THE LATEST
NUMBERS TONIGHT AND SEE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE. RH VALUES
DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.
MOISTURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH RH VALUES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10:
KEET: 30/1996
NOVEMBER 11:
KBHM: 25/1926
KEET: 27/1996
KANB: 24/1950
KTCL: 26/1953
KMGM: 29/1991
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10:
KBHM: 46/1950
KEET: 50/2018
KANB: 47/1950
KTCL: 51/1977
KMGM: 55/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 27 42 20 52 / 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 29 41 21 52 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 28 42 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 30 45 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 29 45 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 34 44 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 34 46 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 34 46 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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