597
FXUS64 KBMX 100712
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
TO TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS
MORNING.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH, AND A LOW CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER
35 MPH. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TONIGHT, ENDING THE
GROWING SEASON FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. TYPICALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE UPPER TEENS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS CURRENTLY. AN EMBEDDED VERY COLD UPPER LOW (500MB
TEMPERATURES OF -40C) IS CURRENTLY NEAR CHICAGO AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA CURRENTLY.
HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOES IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA, BUT
THESE AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE
SOUTHWARD, SO THE WINDOW FOR ANY OVERNIGHT FLURRIES IS CLOSING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. DESPITE THE FREEZE THIS MORNING, WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FREEZE ON THE WAY TONIGHT WILL WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY TO END THE
GROWING SEASON FOR ALL COUNTIES.
WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -12C, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM UP TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 30S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS
IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE JUST UNDER 30 KTS. A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE OF AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO ADVISORY CRITERIA (30 KTS)
EXISTS, BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS, LOW RH VALUES WILL BE
PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WARM UP SLIGHTLY
MORE. GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED WINDS, THIS WILL RESULT IN BORDERLINE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS/HIGH FIRE DANGER, AND OUTDOOR BURNING IS
HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW,
IN THE DGZ, WILL APPROACH THE AREA, BUT REMAINS SHALLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST
OF OUR AREA, BUT THERE IS A LOW/NON-ZERO CHANCE IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NON-IMPACTFUL FLURRIES.
TONIGHT, THE CENTER OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE END RESULT WILL BE LOWS
IN THE LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS IN
THE UPPER TEENS. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE
WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER, THOUGH LOWS WILL STILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS
FROM THE TEENS TO THE 50S, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER, ESPECIALLY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LOW FORMING IN THE BASE OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH, BUT REMAINING
PROGRESSIVE AND CONNECTED TO THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CONUS BY SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS STILL
INDICATED PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. THE
PROGRESSIVE CLUSTERS GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW WARM SECTOR WITH
A HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS ON THE LOWER END AT
THIS TIME, BUT WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR IT TO BE MONITORED.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA BUT
PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT THEY WOULD REACH BHM/EET. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KTS
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE. 20FT WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 MPH
AREAWIDE. WHILE THE RH AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE MET IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, THE NATIONAL SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ONLY INDICATES A LOW RISK. RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. MOISTURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH RH VALUES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10:
KEET: 30/1996
NOVEMBER 11:
KBHM: 25/1926
KEET: 27/1996
KANB: 24/1950
KTCL: 26/1953
KMGM: 29/1991
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10:
KBHM: 46/1950
KEET: 50/2018
KANB: 47/1950
KTCL: 51/1977
KMGM: 55/2018
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 40 21 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 40 22 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 41 23 52 37 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 45 24 55 37 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 43 23 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 43 26 51 35 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 46 23 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 47 24 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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