876
FXUS64 KBMX 111708
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1108 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- THE GROWING SEASON ENDS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH GRADUAL
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
PRESENTLY, DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHILE A SHARP NORTHWEST ERLY FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS. EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE
ARKLAMISS REGIONS TO OUR WEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY WHILE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO
NORTHEAST INTO MUCH OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE
RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS. AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA WHILE LOW TO MID 50S WILL BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE SOUTHEAST,
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
FAIR SKIES, EXPECT THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE A
LIGHT FREEZE, WITH MANY LOCATIONS TO THE WEST LIKELY REMAINING
JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
THE MODERATING TREND WILL BECOME EVEN MORE NOTICABLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST BY THURSDAY WITH DEAMPLIFYING RESIDUAL TROUGHING LOCATED
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AS IT REMAINS CENTERED
TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. FAIR SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S FAR
SOUTHWEST.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS LOCALLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST,
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. FAIR
SKIES WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT LOW FROM
AROUND 40 FAR NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 FAR SOUTHWEST.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MIGRATE FURTHER EAST, BECOMING CENTERED
OVERMUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST AS
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S FAR EAST TO THE
LOW 40S WEST AND HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAR
EAST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED BY
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
REGION, RESULTING IN AN INCREASED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST. INCREASING SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS ON FEATURE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY IS
DECREASING THE CERTAINTY ON SURFACE FEATURES, BUT LINGERING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY DURING THE DAY WITH A LOW (15-25%)
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST WITH
VERY LOW (5-15%) CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA
TO THE MID 50S WEST AND CENTRAL AND HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR
EAST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
CONTINUED SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO MONDAY ON FEATURE
POSITION AND INTENSITY WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR AN
UPPER LOW TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WITH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LOCALLY WITH
ISOLATED (25-35%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WITH A FEW (15-25%) SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH, FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH.
05
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 8 KTS THROUGH
00Z, THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 7 KTS
AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.
16
FIRE WEATHER
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEK
AS DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA, RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
20 TO 26 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 52 31 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 52 34 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 36 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 56 35 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 55 33 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 52 34 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 54 32 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 54 32 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...16
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