233
FXUS64 KBMX 120517
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS DROUGHT
PERSISTS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE AMPLIFIED RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND EXTENDS NORTH TO OVER MUCH OF IDAHO. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WHILE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DEEP TROUGHING WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
EXPECT FAIR SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD MORNING
THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FROM AROUND FREEZING EAST AND SOUTH WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING WEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST AND EAST TO READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FAR NORTHEAST TO READINGS IN THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHWEST. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S EAST TO THE LOW 50S
WEST, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A PERSISTENT GROWING SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD, LARGELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND AND WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL APPROACH THIS AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES AMONG GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AFFECTS
SURFACE FIELDS AS WELL, WITH ENSEMBLE DEPICTION SPREAD TOOLS
YIELDING A 8-12 DEGREE THERMAL SPREAD AND POTENTIALLY A 20-40
PERCENT POP SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEYOND
SUNDAY DUE TO THE THESE UNCERTAINTY'S.
LONGWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND ADVANCE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW LIKELY OPENS
INTO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES. THE LONGWAVE RIDGING FLATTENS CONSIDERABLY AS IT
MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY
DUE TO PERSISTING TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AT THAT TIME. THE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE LOOKS TO DAMPEN AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
MOVES INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODEL SPREADS ARE
GREATEST DURING THIS TIME IN THE DEPICTION OF A SLOWER/DEEPER
SOLUTION VERSUS A MORE COMPACT OR OPEN WAVE CONFIGURATION THAT
PROPAGATES MORE QUICKLY TO THE EAST. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT OF
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING THAT LOOKS TO AMPLIFY OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND MID-SOUTH REGION DURING THIS TIME AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN SUCH
SCENARIOS. A FEW WEAK FRONTS WILL TRY TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST, BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE A MORE
MOIST AIRMASS APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
WILL GO WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED (10-30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FAR SOUTHEAST. CARRIED ISOLATED (15-35%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AREAWIDE TUESDAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED (10-30%) SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO BE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES NORTH AND
WEST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT DEPICTION
FOR NOW UNTIL THE MORE CRUCIAL FORECAST DETAILS ARE BETTER
RESOLVED. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE MORE STEADY THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME AS LOWS AREAWIDE WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY
COOLER LOWS MONDAY MORNING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOW 50S SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES COOLER
TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FROM THE LOW
70S FAR EAST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S AREAWIDE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS FROM
AROUND 70 FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40 PERCENT
RANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 32 64 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 34 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 37 64 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 35 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 34 68 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 34 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 33 69 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 33 69 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION.../44/
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