290
FXUS64 KBMX 121745
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS DROUGHT
PERSISTS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS MORNING'S FORECAST UPDATE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
AND ANOTHER HEADING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. UPPER RIDGING CAN BE
SEEN BUILDING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, LEAVING US WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDING
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR (0.59" PWAT ON THE
12Z KBMX SOUNDING) WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
FOG AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR VIS LESS THAN A MILE. INCREASING PROBABILITIES AND RAP
GUIDANCE PROMOTING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 2-4MB
PROVIDE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, OUR WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
OUR PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A STOUT UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE SENDING A COLD FRONT OUR WAY. WE WILL SEE PWATS ON THE RISE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE A 20-40% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE HANG ONTO LOW TO MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS NEARBY.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT,
LEADING VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY FROM 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS OF NOW, GREATEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TERMINALS. OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AT
BHM/EET/TCL FOR MVFR VIS AROUND SUNRISE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST, GENERALLY FROM 15-20
MPH. WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40-50% RANGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. RHS FALL INTO THE 30-35% RANGE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OUR SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW. MIN RHS INCREASE BACK INTO THE 40-50%
RANGE FOR MOST OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 66 42 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 66 44 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 70 45 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 69 44 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 66 45 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 69 44 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 68 44 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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