873
FXUS64 KBMX 130525
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1125 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
- EXPECT COOL MORNINGS AND WARMER AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
RESIDUAL TROUGHING WAS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST, EXTENDING
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE AMPLIFIED RIDGING EXTENDED
FROM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWEST TO OVER MUCH OF MONTANA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND EXTENDS NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. EXPECT FAIR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN SOME ADDITIONAL
AMPLIFICATION IN THE BROAD RIDGING TO OUR WEST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED WITH TIME ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DROUGHT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN IN THE 70S AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH LOWS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 50 WEST THEN WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
AND OPEN INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH, ARIZONA AND COLORADO.
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THERE IS BUILDING CONSENSUS AMONG THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE
FEATURE PLACEMENT AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH REGION INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE SPREAD IN
MODEL DEPICTIONS OF FEATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY, LOCALLY, CONSENSUS ON BROAD RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE AREA
HAS INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND FURTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA IN DRY FASHION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE FIRST FRONT WILL REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE SECOND FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE WITH
TIME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AS
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING AREAWIDE. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED (15-30%)
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED ISOLATED (15-25%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 50S SOUTHEAST,
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE
MID 50S SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREAWIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S AREAWIDE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S
FAR NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS CYCLE. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TCL, EET AND BHM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
CYCLE.
05
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RH
VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER 20 TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW DESPITE THE CONTINUING DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 37 70 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 42 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 44 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 45 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 43 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 45 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 44 73 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 44 72 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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