603
FXUS64 KBMX 131719
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1119 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1059 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
- EXPECT COOL MORNINGS AND WARMER AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS A TROUGH PUSHING
OFF THE EAST COAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE 12Z HREF PROBS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS TO BE ABOUT 2-5MB. THEREFORE, HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CWA. ANY DENSE FOG WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO OR ALONG LOCAL
RIVERS AND CREEKS.
NEXT WEEK:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS WITH
THE LAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, THERE REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT, A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES IN SOME TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING,
EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE WILL LIKELY STALL TO OUR NORTH
BUT JUST HOW FAR NORTH IS THE QUESTION. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
PLACEMENT, WE WILL SEE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A SEVERAL BOUTS OF H5 ENERGY EJECT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AGAIN AT
TCL/MGM. HELD OFF ON INCLUDING ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL REASSESS WITH THE 00Z UPDATE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RH
VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE UPPER 20 TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW DESPITE THE CONTINUING
DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 39 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 70 41 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 71 44 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 75 44 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 74 43 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 71 44 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 74 42 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 73 43 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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