411
FXUS64 KBMX 151741
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1112 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MILD AIRMASS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER RISK ON
MONDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE LOOK EVEN FURTHER WEST,
ANOTHER TROUGH IS CHURNING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT
WILL SOON BE NUDGED SOUTH AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE, MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL AL DURING THE DAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING SOMEWHERE JUST
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING,
EXPECTING A DRY FROPA. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ALONG THE BAJA
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY OPENING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL KICK ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER A FAIRLY WARM WEEKEND, WE WILL COOL DOWN A BIT ON MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE QUICKLY WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
BY MID WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO OUR NORTH, WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS FROM 15-20 KNOTS, GENERALLY AT
BHM/EET/TCL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE, HAVE
INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MIN RHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40-50% THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A LOW SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL. MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
MIN RHS FALL TO 20-25% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS, KEEPING US BELOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA. WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THESE TRENDS. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY WITH MIN RHS BACK IN THE 40-50%
RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 76 56 75 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 77 55 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 76 58 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 79 56 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 77 55 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 75 54 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 78 54 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 77 53 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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