221
FXUS64 KBMX 170037
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MILDER AIRMASS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER RISK ON
MONDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE A THIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS
MAXIMIZING THE LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY
STALLING ALONG THE GULF COAST. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST TONIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TOMORROW FALL IN THE 20- 25% RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WE COULD BE EVEN DRIER. HREF
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF RHS LESS THAN
20%. LUCKILY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. WE WILL BE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON THE TRENDS TOMORROW.
THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL SEE SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPS FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
BY THURSDAY, A STOUT UPPER LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
TOWARDS THE PLAINS. A FEW H5 IMPULSES WILL RACE AHEAD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, LEADING TO SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE SENT OUR WAY BY THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE WHEN IT COMES TO FROPA TIMING NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
08
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
TOMORROW WITH MIN RH DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, CONTRIBUTING TO A
MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW RED FLAG ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, AND WE WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN MIN RHS WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 35-40% IN THE EAST AND 45-50% IN THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 38 67 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 40 68 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 45 70 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 45 73 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 43 72 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 47 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 47 74 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 49 74 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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